Canada has just gone from bad to worse in the setting of national greenhouse gas emission reduction goals, a bizarre situation that has arisen from the government’s decision to mirror US commitments, now declared in the Copenhagen Accord.

In 2006, reluctantly, Canada set a 2020 emission target of 20% reduction compared to 2006 levels, a goal that, if ever achieved, would have been equal to roughly half of the Kyoto commitment of 6% below 1990 emission levels, and 8 years late to boot.

Now we have a situation where Canada intends to perfectly mirror the United States, which has proposed emissions reductions “in the range of 17%” below 2005 levels – but this will occur only if the Waxman-Markey bill gets past the newly configured Senate.  Anyway, whatever they do, Canada will follow.

What this means is that while Canada will reduce its emissions from present levels, it will no longer even partially fulfill its 2012 Kyoto commitment by 2020, rather it will exceed 1990 baseline levels by about 2.5%, and will be in the red with respect to its actual Kyoto goal by 9%.  It is interesting that the outcome is somewhat different in the United States, where 17% reduction over 2005 levels by 2020 leads to about 3% reduction from their 1990 levels.  There is no reason why Canada should not meet this marker at least, and at the same time fulfill the condition of the Accord that calls for Kyoto parties to “further strengthen” their commitment, which although non-binding, Canada is choosing to violate.

Which is all mightily discouraging for two reasons.  In March last year a group of key climate scientists did a final science update for the Copenhagen meetings, and agreed that “immediate and dramatic reductions of all greenhouse gases are needed if the 2oC guardrail is to be respected.”  

Not long after this the G8 agreed that developed countries shared the 2oC goal and would need to reduce their emissions 80% by 2050, the implied baseline year being 1990.  This is more in line with scientific estimates, but a weak beginning makes the later carbon descent that much harder.  It’s not long before too hard starts to look like impossible, a perception we must avoid in this very high stakes game – we cannot afford to be less than successful.